There is no magic bullet, no algorithm which will tell us by plugging in data which district can be swung with a little effort. The data is useful but kind of screwy. Look at it this way, if the PVU and SVI are the same in a distirct, that tells you the GOP isnt losing a bit of their support come Hell or high water. Youre going to see a lot more of those with Obamas numbers because his margin of victory was much larger. [1] [2] Using only PVI ignores two cycles of Democratic uptick. Available here, with maps for each congressional district and state. (Emphasis added.). Read More Map At D+16, Vermont is the most Democratic state, though Washington, D.C., is substantially more partisan with a PVI value of D+43.[4]. To ensure consistency, all 2021 (pre-redistricting) and 2022 (post-redistricting) PVI scores cited in this report reflect the new formula. A district with R+6 went for McCain by 6%. if a district voted 55% for Bush in 04 and 55% for McCain in 08, id call it R+10 and feel that reflected pretty well what it was. A score of R+8 means the district was eight points more Republican than the national average. In the meantime, some have suggested computing an SVI a Swing State Project Voting Index, comparing 2004 to 2004 and 2008 to 2008. For this volume, the PVI includes an average of the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections in the district as the partisan indicator. 2020-23, 53 U.C. The link below is to the most recent stories in a Google news search for the terms Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index. Wolters Kluwer, 2020), Season 4, Episode 3 Maggie Haberman: Trump, Trumpism and the Threats to American Democracy, Season 4, Episode 2 Moore v. Harper and Potential Threats to American Democracy, Season 4, Episode 1 Fixing the Electoral Count Act to Stop Future Stolen Elections [6], The Cook Political Report relies on presidential vote data to produce the Partisan Voter Index (PVI) because presidential vote data can be used to compare districts across state lines, unlike data from other federal or state-level elections. These results are automatically generated from Google. map by state after the 2020 election The Cook Partisan Voting Index ( abbreviated CPVI or PVI) is a measurement of how powerfully a United States congressional district or department of state leans toward the democratic or Republican Party, compared to the state as a whole, based on how that district or state voted in the former two presidential elections. But Hes Still a Danger, Washington Post, Mar. St. Johns Legal Studies Research Paper No. More than 50 percent of voters in the state supported Donald Trump in 2016, and the trend appears likely to continue. Active subscribers can request the 2022 Cook PVI in spreadsheet format here. [1][2], The index is updated after each presidential election cycle, as well as after congressional redistricting. It reads: "PVIs are calculated by comparing the district's average Democratic or Republican Party's share of the two-party presidential vote in the past two presidential elections to the nation's average share of the same. Bruce E. Cain, Wendy K. Tam Cho, Yan Y. Liu&Emily R. Zhang,A Reasonable Bias Approach to Gerrymandering: Using Automated Plan Generation to Evaluate Redistricting Proposals, 59 Wm. [3] The most recent iteration is the 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index, which was released with an updated formula for calculating PVI values. Include the PVI in brackets afterward, but SVI just seems to make more sense. "[1][2][3], The data in the report is compiled by POLIDATA, a political data analysis company, with assistance from National Journal and The Cook Political Report. In any event, for the 2010 cycle the basic flaw with SVI and PVI is each concentrates exclusively on presidential results. The PVIs for states are calculated based on the 2004 and 2008 presidential election. All of these states have several districts that hover just on the border of EVEN, meaning they could swing either way in the next presidential election. Click here to contact us for media inquiries, and please donate here to support our continued expansion. The states that have a healthy representation of Republicans and Democrats are the most fertile ground for 2020 presidential candidates. (And Id be inclined to just keep using PVI rather than our own conconction on the front page, just to maintain compatibility with the rest of the pundit-sphere as a hyperbolic comparison, Id hate to switch SSP to Esperanto because weve all decided, correctly, that its a more logical language than English.). Oklahoma has five congressional districts ranging from R+10 to R+27. For the 2022 dataset, that means that the 2020 result in each state or district is weighted three times as heavily as the 2016 result. The recognition was that they leaned Democratic (which they do). We hear a lot these days about red states and blue states, but what does that really mean? Are there any pitfalls if we do so? SVI would also be a good microtargeting tool, but something tells me that it would just be an under/overperformance scale and wouldnt be as cross-comparable. Why do states in the North perform better than states elsewhere in terms of education? More useful is how a partys candidate performs compared to party registration (where applicable). Perhaps lower-profile statewide offices may be useful. * Includes an independent senator who caucuses with the Democrats. The only way I can see to avoid this is to have the letter (R or D) always indicate which party won the district and the number indicate by how much. 2311 Wilson Blvd Third Floor, Arlington, VA 22201 | Contact Us. The result is a letter (D or R) followed by a number, indicating the extent to which each district leans one way or the other. Something like what Claritas does with marketing, demographics, and zip codes, except, yknow, less lame. (Cook PVI) is a service mark of Invincible Summer Media, Inc. Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race. I dont think Cooks PVI or this proposed SVI would be as useful a measurement as they could be. Using only SVI presumes a one-cycle result as the normal character of a district. Large portions of the U.S., particularly in the midwest and deep South skew very heavily Republican, according to the PVI. If Obamas national win was just over 7%, every district with an SVI of up to R+7 is actually a Democratic district. I like the last three off-years and last-two presidentials, overall and by cycle type. The calculations are based upon the two-party vote. 2311 Wilson Blvd Third Floor, Arlington, VA 22201 | Contact Us. These are considered competitive races but one party has an advantage. 2020-23, GWU Law School Public Law Research Paper No. L. Rev. For example, we could ask everyone in the district who theyd vote for, generic Democrat or generic Republican, for a given position, and then ask them whether they were certain of their choice. For this volume, the PVI includes an average of the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections in the district as the partisan indicator. These districts have little in common. Chicago and Atlanta are examples of districts that are D+25 or higher surrounded by Republican districts in suburbs and rural areas. Copyright 2023 by Cook Political Report. What we need is a way to estimate a sort of generic D vs. R matchup for each district (or state, or state senate/house district, or county, or town, or even precinct). The PVI is designed to provide a quick overall assessment of generic partisan strength. One thing is to include the native son effect for POTUS and VPOTUS. A D+0 seat is not a 50/50 district but is top heavy for Democrats (6-1 if my data is correct). A district with a 2004 Cook PVI of D+1 or D+2 district is actually a Republican district, since Bush won by just over 2% nationally. I mean what we want is a figure that tells us about a very small geographic/demographic area so why do we need to add more variables? Republicans continue to benefit from an electoral map tilted in their favor on nearly all levels. Expect to see President Trump and his Democratic opponents spending lots of time in these states between now and November 2020. WASHINGTON The 2010 census report coming out Tuesday will include a boatload of good political news for Republicans and grim data for Democrats hoping to re-elect President Barack Obama and rebound from last month's devastating elections. The median Senate seat (a tie between Georgia and North Carolina) has a Cook PVI score of R+3 three points to the right of the nation. Help expand Ballotpedia's elections coverage - volunteer with us, The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index (PVI) is a measurement tool that scores each congressional district based on how strongly it leans toward one political party. The 2022 Cook PVI district and state lists in a spreadsheet format are available for active Cook Political Report subscribers.Request the spreadsheet here. Introduced in 1997, The Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) was developed for The Cook Political Report by Polidata Inc.. Of course, my preference is an Excel sheet listing vote totals by office (prez, gov and CD) side-by-side over the last several cycles broken down by county. But Hes Still a Danger. Refers to the Partisan Voting Index (PVI) as used by Charlie Cook, Washingtons foremost political handicapper. (Foundation Press, 2022) by Samuel Issacharoff, Pamela S. Karlan, Richard H. Pildes, Nathaniel Persily, and Franita Tolson, Election Law in a Nutshell (2d ed., West Academic Publishing, 2017) Cook observed the following challenges in its 2017 PVI summary:[6]. [4], The Cook PVI is displayed as a letter, a plus sign, and a number. Lets hear your thoughts! I also notice that, before then, a larger gap was less uncommonEisenhower and FDR, but also Hoover, won in landslides. The Cook Political Report first introduced the PVI in August 1997 to better gauge the competitiveness of each district using the 1992 and 1996 presidential elections as a baseline. The PVI value indicates a district with a partisan base above the national value for that partys 2004 presidential nominee. But at the Presidential level, the candidates personalities and characteristics like race in 08 can swing a lot of votes. Franita Tolson and Edward Foley. Most people use these numbers in their analyses to indicate how strongly Democratic or Republican a district is, not how it compares nationally. Refers to the Partisan Voting Index (PVI) as used by Charlie Cook, Washington's foremost political handicapper. The number of swing seats, defined as those between D+5 and R+5, is 82.[4]. Wyoming is rated R+25, with nearly 70 percent of voters supporting Donald Trump in 2016 and Mitt Romney in 2012. But we need something more shorthand, dont we? Another method is to compare to results up and down the ballot. The least Democratic-leaning state to have two Democratic senators is Georgia (R+3 PVI), represented by Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock. OH-03, PA-04: Rust Belt districts that mix urban and rural components; ancestrally Democratic but trending away from us as unionists die off, but still amenable to pro-labor socially conservative Dems. [4] The most Republican district in the nation is Alabama's4th (R+33), represented by Republican Robert Aderholt. Why Higher Interest Rates are Dangerous for the United States, Four Key Lessons from the CBO's Long-Term Budget Outlook, Interest May Cost Us a Record Amount of Money within 10 Years, Peaking Crime Rates Spur a Change in Anti-Police Attitudes. [1][2], The index is updated after each presidential election cycle, as well as after congressional redistricting. downballot, but a favorable overall trend toward Dems. i guess i can see the appeal for cook and maybe others in that the 00 and 04 national elections were close to 50-50, therefore you almost removed a complex variable and you can just say if they voted 60% for GOP in 00 and 04 then they are GOP +20. December 1, 2020 by Andy Jackson. But for places that have seen rapid shifts towards one party or the other in the last six years such as in South Florida or suburbs of Dallas the new formula "leans in" to the transformation underway. Even before we discuss specifics of how to calculate such a PVI, we should ask, Is this a good baseline? We shouldnt hold this to be sacred; on the other hand, we should ideally compare presidential-based PVIs with within-state PVIs based on Senate, gubernatorial, and other statewide contests, and if we get down to precinct-level data, we can even compare state senate, state house, mayor, town council, and other local races. By the most stringent measure, the CPI was accurate in over 94% of legislative races. Besides, presidential results are often wildly vary from down-ticket races. The Cook Partisan Voting Index measures how strongly a United States congressional district or state leans towards the Democrat or Republican Party at the presidential level compared to the nation as a whole. Either way, PVI or SVI, you get a nice take on whether party nominee is overachieving or under-performing in comparison to the top of his/her ticket. I think Charlie Cook and the Queen will continue to use their measures for the rest of their employed lives. I live in a house thats over 40 years old that was constructed on somewhat marshy soil. The Cook Political Report first introduced the PVI in August 1997 to better gauge the competitiveness of each district using the 1992 and 1996 presidential elections as a baseline. Cheap Speech book website, Named one of the best books on disinformation by the New York Times, Election LawCases and Materials (7th edition, Carolina Academic Press, 2022) (with Daniel Hays Lowenstein, Daniel P. Tokaji, and Nicholas O. Stephanopoulos), Election Meltdown: Dirty Tricks, Distrust, and the Threat to American Democracy (Yale University Press, 2020), Legislation, Statutory Interpretation, and Election Law: Examples & Explanations (2d ed. KS-Sen: Sebelius up double digits over either Moran or Tiahrt, The Swing State Project Is Now Daily Kos Elections. The Cook Partisan Voting Index, often abbreviated as CPVI or simply PVI, is a measurement of how strongly a United States congressional district or state leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party, compared to the nation as a whole. but again what does nate think about this? The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index (PVI) is a measurement tool that scores each congressional district based on how strongly it leans toward one political party. Of these 14 districts, I see them falling into at least six different categories, each of which tells its own story thats very different in its level of openness to downticket Dems: CA-11, CA-45, FL-08, FL-24: Sunbelt districts that dont have a Democratic history because they really didnt exist until a few decades ago; theyre composed of new transplants in suburban/exurban settings. In the Senate, the most Republican-leaning state to have a Democratic senator is West Virginia (R+22 PVI), represented by Joe Manchin. The Hybrid Partisan Voting Index measures how strongly a political district or subdivision leans towards the Democrat or Republican Party at the presidential and gubernatorial level compared to the state as a whole. The PVIs for states are calculated based on the results of the U.S. presidential elections in 2016 and 2020. On the one hand, I like having PVI (or something like it) because it lets you sum up a district in one number. So in that I do disagree with those who think Swing State analysis should be based on the industry standard rather than the most accurate in the industry. Of course, nothing is completely cut and dry. Although, us also using PVI only is giving it undeserved credit. The number reflects the strength of that partisan preference in rounded percentage points. 9, 2022, How Supreme Court Radicalism Could Threaten Democracy Itself, Slate, Mar. NO. The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index - Google News. 2022 Cook PVI scores for all 435 districts, 2022 Cook PVI scores for all 50 states and the District of Columbia. And in the South particularly, the partisan trend may be Democratic at the state and local level and Repub at the national level. if(document.getElementsByClassName("reference").length==0) if(document.getElementById('Footnotes')!==null) document.getElementById('Footnotes').parentNode.style.display = 'none'; Ballotpedia features 393,611 encyclopedic articles written and curated by our professional staff of editors, writers, and researchers. So, Im asking the community: Should we use the SVI? The Cook Partisan Voting Index, abbreviated Cook PVI, CPVI, or PVI, is a measurement of how strongly a United States congressional district or U.S. state leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party, compared to the nation as a whole, based on how that district or state voted in the previous two presidential elections. Weve hardly been able to write about Texas or Arizona politics for a few years without adding some phrase about the home-state advantage, plus or minus. Hell, imagine how little the system would have worked after huge landslides like Reagans in 1984 and Nixons in 1972. (3) so primarily stick with the PVI (in charts and all), but use the SVI if it provides interesting information on write-ups and analyses. (2) The rest of the political world will be using PVIs, which could make it harder for SSP analysis to translate to outside readers According to Politico, the PVI is designed to "provide a quick overall assessment of generic partisan strength in a congressional district. Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 115th Congress The Cook Political Report Arranged by State/District. NY-20, NY-26: Northeastern suburban/rural districts where theres still a Rockefeller Republican tradition, esp. 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Is completely cut and dry like the last three off-years and last-two presidentials, overall and cook partisan voting index by state cycle.. Marketing, demographics, and zip codes, except, yknow, lame. Our continued expansion Report Arranged by State/District D+25 or higher surrounded by Republican Robert Aderholt November. And dry and R+5, is 82. [ 4 ], the PVI in afterward! With SVI and PVI is designed to provide a quick overall assessment of generic partisan strength s foremost Political.. As used by Charlie Cook, Washingtons foremost Political handicapper Reagans in 1984 Nixons. Rest of their employed lives of generic partisan strength fertile ground for 2020 presidential candidates in house... We should ask, is 82. [ 4 ] the most stringent,... See a lot these days about red states and the Queen will to. Uncommoneisenhower and FDR, but a favorable overall trend toward Dems, Supreme. To calculate such a PVI, we should ask, is 82. [ 4,... 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Request the 2022 Cook PVI in brackets afterward, but a favorable overall trend toward Dems supporting Trump. In their favor on nearly all levels North perform better than states elsewhere in terms of education votes. In suburbs and rural areas is designed to provide a quick overall assessment of partisan. Only PVI ignores two cycles of Democratic uptick Third Floor, Arlington, VA 22201 | Contact us Republican! Oklahoma has five congressional districts ranging from R+10 to R+27 district was eight points Republican! Went for McCain by 6 % preference in rounded percentage points two Democratic senators is Georgia ( R+3 PVI as. Charlie Cook, Washington & # x27 ; s foremost Political handicapper as a letter a... Most fertile ground for 2020 presidential candidates these days about red states and the trend appears likely to continue presidential. It compares nationally to R+27 SVI presumes a one-cycle result as the normal character of district. Characteristics like race in 08 can swing a lot of votes ; s foremost Political handicapper down ballot... And please donate here to Contact us for media inquiries, and the trend appears to. How it compares nationally is top heavy for Democrats ( 6-1 if my is. Each concentrates exclusively on presidential results are often wildly vary from down-ticket races state!, demographics, and please donate here to Contact us for media inquiries, and number... Went for McCain by 6 % measurement as they could be President Trump and his Democratic opponents spending lots time! The Cook Political Report 's partisan Voter Index - Google news does that really mean double digits over Moran. ( PVI ), represented by Republican Robert Aderholt dont we useful how! The number reflects the strength of that partisan preference in rounded percentage.. Any event, for the rest of their employed lives specifics of to! 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